The Ayatollah and Iraq...a déjà vu story?

   

   The violent protests that have been flaring up Iraq for over two months brought about the resignation of Prime Minister Abdel Abdul Mahdi, as sources of the government leaked on November 29th. Interestingly enough, it was not the heavy-handed police response (leaving on the ground more than 400 protesters), nor the pressures from the International Community that caused the PM to step down. What it actually resulted decisive was the official standpoint taken by top Shia Iraqi Authority, Ayatollah Aly Al-Systani condemning the crackdown.

    The riots started in the early October and targeted a ruling class conceived as too corrupted, unable to cope with the rising unemployment rate affecting mainly young people ( in Iraq 60% of the population is under 30). So far the protests have been essentially spontaneous, without a defined lairdship and mainly animated by young people.

    This is up to now. As in the intricate Middle Eastern scenario and specifically in the complicated ethnic and religious mosaic that is Iraq, the gaps of power are particularly quick to be re-filled. The majority of the population in Iraq is Shi’ite and during the ruling of the Sunni Saddam Hussein the gap between Shia majority and the Sunni minority went on more and more widening. In this sense it was of little help the post-Saddam quota-based system attributing key government roles equally to Shia, Sunny and Curds, the three main sectarian and ethnical groups of Iraq.

    Today’s risk in Iraq is that the Shia clergy could take advantage of the lack of leadership during these two month unrests. From Karbala, the Shi’ite holy city in Iraq, Ayatollah Al- Systani presents himself as the guide, both political and spiritual, of a population exacerbated by years of instability, misery and warships. For decades, at least since the Ba’at revolution in the 60s, the religious Shia authorities were relegated to mosques and Madrasas, but today they present themselves  as the political alternative to look upon for a wide population disenchanted by the collapsing republican institutions. And indeed the political situation may justify a daring comparison of today’s Iraq to the 1979-Iran: back then, the anti-Shah protests too were inspired by progressive demands against a corrupted government perceived as driven by external interests. Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, initially declared himself unwilling to lead the protest movements just to oust any other democratic force upon his return to the country.

    The present political situation in Iraq shows some aspects that appear ripe for a populist-theological discourse to be grasped: the protests still do not have a clear ideological motive nor a leadership with which the Shi’ite clergy could compete for; the Iraqi civil society is today much more fragile than the one in Iran in the late 70s and therefore less resilient to the cajolery of the religious lure. Let alone the growing influence exercised by Iran in all the Middle East...  And still, this last point can help debunking a too simplistic comparison between the two countries. The influence of Iran, perceived as too pervasive in the Iraqi politics, was one of the reasons pushing people to take the street. Moreover, the complex confessional and ethnical composition of Iraq does not seem to encourage a potential hegemonic experience by the Shi’a: that, if ever happened, would not be able to take over the pride Sunni population without sparking further conflict eligible to enlarge, once more, at the regional and international level.

    The 2011 “Arab Springs” that gave the hope for a democratic reshaping of the entire Middle East, mostly turned into more excruciating conflicts and authoritarian regimes (with important exceptions like in Tunisia)...The peculiar history of Iraq, its demographic composition and the ethnic and religious divides do not seem to encourage for a controlled and peaceful resolution of the today’s unrests. Will we assist to a resurgence of the religious and ethnical contend as a consequence of the demands for a renovated and more democratic political system? Or should be assisting to a further fragmentation of the Iraqi polity, under the pressure of the internal and the external interests? The upcoming months will be decisive to understanding the evolution of the crisis as well as to grasp once and for all which role the Shia authorities will assume.